August 5, 2011
Posted: 07:46 AM ET
TS Emily is dead, or at least on life support. It appears the combo of Hispaniola mountains and wind shear did her in (see previous blog). The remnants are still producing showers for Haiti/DR and it still may regenerate into a storm. The NHC gives it a 60% chance of turning back into a tropical depression, and if it gains some strength after that it will be called Emily (again). All model guidance takes it off the SE coast.
Heat is back in the same spots, the S, Mid South, and SW. I’ll show you the warned areas for heat plus a glimpse at some of the high temperatures for the day. Areas in purple (above) are under "excessive heat warnings" today. Cooler air WILL drop out of Canada next week, but I still don’t think it will reach past OK/KS border. Fingers crossed, but I’ll check it again on Monday.
Storms are trudging through KS, NE, MO and AR right now and should keep it up through the AM hours. Radars are active and more action will be detected later today from MT/ND/SD all the way down to the SE. I’ll have that on the big show. The rest of the country should be trouble-free.
I’ll keep it short, it’s Friday and nobody wants to read an egghead blog. Have a great weekend!
August 4, 2011
Posted: 08:07 AM ET
My commute to HLN this morning was wild. The flashing lightning was non-stop, making my windshield look like the red carpet at the Oscars. Or at least the Daytime Emmy Awards…
Tropical storm Emily has finally nudged to the north a little. The patch takes it over Haiti today, and if it holds together over the Mountains (see previous blogs) it will emerge into warmer water and lighter wind shear near the Bahamas. This will make her gain some strength, and it will get close to FL Atlantic coast over the weekend. Check out the track above. The Westerlies should move the storm into the Atlantic, away from the Carolinas on Monday. We’ll see how close she gets.
Meanwhile the storms like the one that lit up my drive to work are starting to die off in GA and AL, but the outflow boundaries are still racing around and will shoot up more storms later today. Some could turn severe in MS and AL. Storms and rain are firing from north TX to MO now too, along a week impulse and frontal boundary. I’ll have the radar first thing on "Morning Express."
The smoking hot temps are still in play as well. Little Rock hit 114 yesterday, breaking an ALL TIME HIGH reading. The old record was 112 on 7/31/1986. Hey, it’ll be about 10 degrees cooler today, so better (but that’s still over 100!). I’ll show you the excessive heat warnings and advisories for the Mid South, SW, and S today.
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August 3, 2011
Posted: 07:37 AM ET
Check out the track of Tropical Storm Emily. Looks like a typical tee box shot of mine on a par 5.
More on Emily coming up but first:
Deadly high temperatures are the weather headline today. The heat has been suppressed in the Great Lakes and Upper MW with the passage of a cold front, but it’s become more concentrated over the Mid south, SW, and S. Temps will feel like 100-115F from TX to the Carolinas today, and as far north as MO. I’ll have the maps for you on the show. The Phoenix area is seeing an excessive heat warning for the afternoon as well. I’m looking for a high (sans humidity) of 118 in Phoenix today, look out.
Storms have been plentiful in the OH Valley area this morning. A good impulse is riding along a weak frontal boundary in the area, and that has produced lots of rain and wind. I expect this action to ultimately die out this morning over the Appalachian Mountains, but more will follow this afternoon. Delays at DC and Philly are likely to be over an hour today, heads up. I think the severe weather for the afternoon (including damaging wind and hail) will be from the Mason-Dixon Line down to Nashville.
Tropical storm Emily has winds cranking around 50 mph this morning, under Puerto Rico. TS warnings are up for PR, DR, Haiti, the SE Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos. I’ll have the track of Emily on the show. It appears she will make a landfall over Hispaniola tonight, and get buzzed down over the mountains. If she survives and enters into the open water again, it has the potential for growth into a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane close to the Bahamas and FL/GA coast. The upper air looks pretty good for it, and the warm ocean Temps are already there. The track should make it slice to the right off the coast once it hits the Westerlies around the SC coast, but it still gets close. Again, I’ll pinpoint the NHC’s track forecast on the show. We have at least 2-3 days to watch her.
August 2, 2011
Posted: 07:11 AM ET
Tropical Storm Emily formed yesterday over the Caribbean, and is heading westward south of Puerto Rico right now. PR as well as the Dominican Republic are under a tropical storm warning, and the US Virgin Islands are under a watch as most of the rain and wind from the storm hits them tonight and tomorrow. Winds are currently only 40 mph, but it is expected to strengthen a bit over the next 24-36 hours over some warm water. Luckily, there are some factors working against Emily exploding into a major storm:
1) The shear she is experiencing on the northern section of the circulation. That means that every time the thunderstorms near the center start to rise, they get disrupted by the winds aloft and can’t gain much height or strength.
2) The dry air that she is rolling into. That basically helps to evaporate the clouds a little as they start to build. Tropical systems really need humid air to gain power.
3) It will take aim at Hispaniola, and should be over land for a day. Tropical storms need the warm water to keep feed in moisture and energy, and if you take that away the storm starts to die down.
If Emily can hold itself together after all this in the next 48 hours, it could gain strength and head towards the Bahamas and the SE coast of the US. Check out the path from the NHC:
The same weather pattern from Monday is in place across the continental US. Heat warnings/advisories are solid across the MW and S, and big storms are popping throughout WI, MN, SD, IA and MI. Severe storms will be back for the same spots today (OH to IL), and even more could hammer into New England. I’ll have that forecast for you. The west looks quiet, after morning clouds move away from the coast, and monsoon rain will fall in the Four Corners. Full details on the show.
Headed down to get some coffee. I miss the NJ hair-netted diner-workers that used to ask me "more cawfee doll?" about this time every morning.
Follow Morning Express with Robin Meade meteorologist Bob Van Dillen on Twitter and get breaking weather news anywhere, anytime: @BobVanDillen
August 1, 2011
Posted: 07:22 AM ET
You ever wake up and just can’t seem to be as pleasant as usual? This morning, I went down to the DD kiosk for my coffee (no seats or anything, just a quick grab-n-go type place). I told the guy I wanted my coffee for ‘here’ this time instead of ‘to go’. He looked at me like I was wearing a beefeater uniform. After a few uncomfortable minutes, I finally said I was kidding, and he got me my order. I don’t know why I had to mess with him at 6:15 in the morning, but I just did.
Anyway, Monday’s weather highlights read as follows: storms, heat, and another possible tropical storm developing.
First, the storms. A good line is dropping into New York state this morning, and that should fan out across the rest of the Northeast and New England in the form of heavy rain and damaging wind. It’s ahead of a cold front that will steer in the rough weather today, and it will affect air travel across the Northeast. Watch the show for full details.
Another shot of severe weather is building in the Upper Midwest this morning, and that means severe weather for MN, WI, U.P. MI, and the Dakotas for the afternoon. The radar is active now over MN and ND.
Heat below this action will be oppressive today. Excessive heat warnings are up from TX to MO with advisories all around there, too. The temp in Dallas without the humidity will be around 107-109 this afternoon. Twenty out of 31 days in July were 100 degrees or hotter at DFW. It was the 3rd warmest July on record - so this will just add to their misery.
Keep your eye on the heat map if you're wondering whether your region will be dripping in sweat today:
With the humidity in place and the sunshine abundant, the South will get more heat-induced storms this afternoon. Watch for heavy rain from Georgia and the Carolinas to Florida and the rest of the Gulf Coast.
Monsoonal moisture is shooting up from the Four Corners this morning. I’m watching for storms and pockets of rain from AZ/NM north to MT today. The Coast looks okay after some morning clouds and fog.
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