October 27, 2011
Posted: 08:22 AM ET
Hurricane Rina is looking haggard, and that’s great news for Cancun. Yesterday the storm starting gulping in dry air from the north and that started her decline. Rina should hit the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or tomorrow morning, and then head East towards Cuba. By this time the southwest wind shear will be cutting what’s left of the storm down even further, and at this point it doesn’t appear to be a threat to S FL or the US. I’ll have the forecast from the NHC for you on the show.
A strong cold front is draped across the US from the NE to NM this morning, and heavy pockets of rain are being stirred up. The heavy snow is falling in NM and north TX this morning, but that should exit and turn to rain later today. I saw reports in CO of 18” of snow near Pueblo, with Denver getting over a half-foot of the stuff.
The heavy rain in will bring delays to NYC, Philly, DC, Boston, Detroit, Chicago and Dallas.
TX is getting some beneficial rain today too. This is the first time in a long time that a cold front has made it through to the Lone Star State with enough juice to produce rain and storms, enjoy it! Those are the bullet points, see ya out there.
October 26, 2011
Posted: 07:25 AM ET
Hurricane Rina has changed little in the past 12 hours, but is right on the cusp of being a major hurricane. The winds all night and into this morning were around 110 mph, a Cat. 2 (major hurricanes are Cat 3 and above, with winds of more than 110 mph). The satellite presentation looks pretty good, with the outflow clouds blowing out in a circle. That’s an indication to me that the storm is not being disturbed by any wind shear yet, and still has a good chance of strengthening a little further before it hits or brushes into the northern Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow. Cancun and Cozumel are under hurricane warnings right now. Rina has been crawling to the West this morning, but once it gets a little closer to the Westerly’s it should pick up it’s forward speed and bend towards Cuba or the FL Straights. The land interaction near Cancun, wind shear, and cooler water temps should buzz down the hurricane’s strength in about 36 hours, and that’s great news. The FL keys and Southern FL may start feeling the effects of this storm by the weekend, but by that time Rina should be down to a tropical storm. I’ll update you again tomorrow on the strength/path.
The other big story is the major snow storm over the Rockies. Denver (again, record high of 80F on Monday) has switched from rain to snow and could see around a foot pile up around the metro area by this evening! The storm itself should slide into the Plains tonight and take the snow with it, but rain and snow will also hit WY, NM, and the OK/TX panhandles. I’ll have the radar and warnings for you.
A cold front and warm front are sliding into the NE out of the MW this morning, and the rain has been heavy for NY state, PA and OH this morning. I’m afraid travel delays will fire up in NYC, PHL, and Denver today. I’ll have the entire deal for you on the show.
*Follow Bob Van Dillen on Twitter: @BobVanDillen
October 25, 2011
Posted: 09:52 AM ET
Hurricane Rina is in the western Caribbean Sea slowly gaining strength. The storm is now a Cat 2 with winds around 100 mph, and may become a major hurricane with winds around 115 mph by tomorrow. The patch takes it close to Cancun around Thursday and then bends it eastward towards Cuba for the weekend. We’ll see where it goes from there, but if you live in South FL keep an eye on this thing. Usually this time of year the cold fronts and steering flow is a lot stronger, so the hurricanes get batted around like a ping pong ball and don’t get a chance to gain super strength. This is a little different in the short term, since it’s going over warmer water with light winds. We’ll keep our eyes on it. I’ll tweet about Rina this afternoon too (only b/c if I tweeted personal stuff, your eyes would glaze over. “Gotta pick up kids at school, later cleaning up after my dog” real compelling, right?).
Stateside I’m watching a cold front slide off the New England coast taking rain out to sea with it. The wind will pick up behind this thing and gust to around 30 mph for the NE.
Another shot of rain is moving over MI this morning ahead of a warm front, but the major storm for the afternoon and evening is getting started over the Rockies now. The wind will switch around to the E over CO and blow up the Rockies. This should change your rain over to snow overnight for Denver (whose high was 80 yesterday!) and pile up 2-4”. A winter storm warning is in effect for a good chunk of CO and WY. I’ll show you the maps.
September 30, 2011
Posted: 02:36 PM ET
Hurricane Ophelia has gained strength this morning with winds around 100 mph. Bermuda is under a tropical storm watch now, and the big waves will build for the south shore. Winds will approach tropical storm strength by Saturday afternoon, and I think the’ll get around an inch of rain. The storm will book it to the north and gradually lose tropical characteristics, but should slam into Newfoundland as a powerful post-tropical storm Monday.
Check out the new Great Lakes storm! Same as the old Great Lakes storm. Actually, the current rain maker over MI, IN and OH booted the old one out to ME last night. The wind behind this new one is howling, with gusts over 40 mph from WI/MI to IL, IN and OH. Radar won’t show the 15-20’ waves on Lake MI and Huron this morning. If you are flying to the MW today, it’ll be a two-bagger for you with all the rocking winds.
The energy from this storms heads eastward today, and will form as an early Nor’easter-type storm for New England. That means more wind and rain for the NE and a possibility of snow mixing into the WV mountains. Temps will drop 15-20 degrees from today too! Powerful stuff.
A little light rain is falling in TX this morning, but it wont amount to much. It’s already cooler north of there with frost advisories in MN, IA, WI, SD and NE. Clouds are back this morning for the Bay Area, so San Francisco will probably get some delays at SFO.
Have a good weekend you guys!
*If you are not following HLN Meteorologist Bob Van Dillen on Twitter... you are missing out on gems like this: @BobVanDillen Headed 2 Robin's CD/Book signing @ the TurnerStore. Hope she doesn't call security on me. Only worked w/ her for 9 yrs!
September 29, 2011
Posted: 08:39 AM ET
A weather pattern shift is finally going to take place today for the MW and NE. That stubborn, slow-moving storm that has dumped heavy rain for days on the region will get the bum’s rush out the door to the East by a sharp cold front dropping down from Canada.
Check out the map. The brown solid lines are isobars (lines of equal surface air pressure), the green lines are forecasted rainy spots, and you can see the blue cold fronts and red warm fronts. That cold front over WI to KS is the one that will boot the Low (Red L) from it’s perch over Ontario!
The rain will be heavy today for spots in New England, and the flood warnings are lining up south of there in NJ, PA, and NY right now. The rain should ebb tomorrow, but a weekend storm will bring it right back. In fact, it appears to me that we could see a very early season Nor’easter develop in the NE on Saturday. This would be a big wind and rain maker, too early and warm for snow.
The cold front over the Upper MW this morning will make for a windy day in MN, EI, MI, and IA/IL. Wind advisories are posted for the spots this afternoon, with gusts near 45 mph.
The tropical air mass across the SE will soon be replaced by the cool air as well, but today will feature more warm temps from the Carolinas southward.
A few showers are popping near Houston early this morning, and some real rain will develop later today over Central TX! I know, it seems too good to be true but keep your fingers crossed San Antonio/Austin to Waco.
The west is exceptionally dry today once again.
Ophelia is back to strong tropical storm strength and may be a hurricane by late today. Bermuda may get put in a tropical storm watch this afternoon as the storm gets close by Saturday. We’ll see. Our good friends in Newfoundland may take a hit from Ophelia on Monday as a tropical storm as well, I’ll keep you guys updated.
September 12, 2011
Posted: 09:38 AM ET
Tropical Storm Maria hovers in the Atlantic and will likely grow to hurricane strength in the coming days. However, the storm is expected to move away from the US and not pose a threat to the mainland. Katia, Lee, Irene and Nate were damaging, but they are gone. However, don’t let today’s lull in tropical activity fool you. We are actually in peak week for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic’s Hurricane Season.
Hurricane Season for the Atlantic, Gulf or Mexico and Caribbean Sea runs from June 1st to November 30th. Notice on the graph above the peak of the season occurs on or around September 10th. The sea surface temperature of the water this time of year is typically the warmest. Plus, wind shear is more relaxed, meaning that lighter winds would allow thunderstorms to grow taller and stronger.
It may be calm now – before the next storm. Remember: hurricane season is not over yet!
September 9, 2011
Posted: 08:50 AM ET
Hurricane Katia is kicking up the surf for East Coast Beaches. While that may be great news for surfers, the large waves bring other dangers – Rip Currents. NOAA and The United States Lifesaving Association offers facts & safety tips:
Facts about rip currents:
Where can I get more information about rip currents?
Stay safe in the surf!
September 6, 2011
Posted: 07:25 AM ET
What a morning with something for everybody weather wise. Tornado warnings have been posted for VA and NC this morning with a watch down to SC until 2 pm. I’ll have the warning areas. This stuff is all from the remnants of tropical storm Lee as it gets pulled northward along a cold front. The huge amounts of rain we saw fall on LA and MS is now edging through the Appalachian Mountains to the NE with flood watches and warnings all around. I’m thinking around 5-6” or rain in the mountains. I’ll have those for you too.
That cold front is actually a blessing for the NE, since it will effectively shunt hurricane Katia away from the US/Canadian coast and into the northern Atlantic over the next 5 days. Rip currents and rough surf is the only noticeable product of the storm we’ll see.
The fire weather for TX and OK has weakened a bit since yesterday. Winds will be out of the North around 10 mph, but the humidity will be around 15-25%. The temperatures will only be in the 80's though.
Rain and a few storms are stretching away from San Diego this morning and affecting the Four Corners, but should only tally around ½” of rain. I’ll keep it short, since it’s the Tuesday after a long holiday weekend. Nobody wants to sit through a weather lecture!
September 5, 2011
Posted: 04:46 AM ET
*Bonnie Schneider is filling in for Morning Express meteorologist Bob Van Dillen today.
Tropical Depression Lee is a moving – little by little. Unfortunately, small movement of a tropical system means BIG rains for the areas it impacts. Lee has been drenching southern portions of Gulf States all weekend. Record rainfall was recorded in parts of Louisiana Sunday. All of that heavy rain is causing floods to break out all along the Gulf Coast. As Lee moves inland, the flood threat begins for other southern states, including Tennessee and Georgia.
Additionally, in the Northeast, for Vermont, New Jersey, New York, New Hampshire, and Maine, flooding has been a concern for over a week. The region is still cleaning up from Hurricane Irene’s flooding rains. As the waters slowly recede, the flood threat continues across that region this holiday weekend.
Flash floods can not only be destructive – they can also be deadly. According to NOAA, “Each year, more deaths occur due to flooding than from any other severe weather related hazard. The Centers for Disease Control report that over half of all flood-related drownings occur when a vehicle is driven into hazardous flood water.”
Here are some flood safety tips:
Stay safe in the wet days ahead!
September 2, 2011
Posted: 08:58 AM ET
*Meteorologist Bonnie Schneider is filling in for Bob Van Dillen today.
Hurricane Katia formed Thursday in the Atlantic. This active hurricane season already has us up to the 11th letter of the alphabet for named storms. We still have yet to hit the peak of hurricane season around September 10-12th. If Katia sounds like a new name for a hurricane, there’s a reason for that. Since 1979, the World Meteorological Organization repeats its list of hurricane names every 6 years. The exception is when a hurricane name is retired from use:
“If a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.” – NOAA
The 2011 name list repeats the names used back in 2005 – an incredibly destructive year for hurricanes.
Following that season, 5 names were retired to no longer use. They are:
Those names this year were replaced with:
Also in 2005, all the names were used up, and eventually the Greek alphabet was used to continue naming storms. Hopefully, that history won’t repeat itself this year!
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